Average Locked in Rates in the USA today.
Rates, Credit, and LTV Ratios
Rates calculated from actual locked rates with consumers across 35% of all mortgage transactions nationwide.
FRED Mortgage Rate Graph. Updated each Thursday.
To see rates across the graph, drag mouse (phone=finger) across graph.
This page uses the FRED® API and data from Optima Blue but is not endorsed or certified by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis or Optima Blue.
January 30, 2023.
More positive sentiments:
"Worst in home sales is probably coming to an end" says Lawrence Un, NAR's chied economist (WSJ).
"The housing market has begun to recover after hitting a low point in the second week of November" (Redfin).
Leaving 2022 behind us:
December 2022 concluded the weakest year for sales activity since 2014.
October housing affordability reported as the lowest since September 1985.
October 27, 2022.
Payments continue to rise:
Today it costs the buyer $333.00 more per month for each $100,000.00 borrowed (@ 7%) than it did one year ago (@ 3%).
Seller's are feeling pressure to lower home prices but so far not in proportion to the rising cost of borrowing.
Sales continue to fall:
Sticky prices likely explain why existing-home sales fell 24% from a year earlier, and new-home sales were down 18%, according to the Wall Street Journal.
Borrowers cannot afford last year's prices at this year's mortgage rates.
According to FRED, since 2020 average home prices have risen 45% ($374,000 -> $542,000) while interest rates have risen 100% (3.5% -> 7.0%) pushing many would be buyers out of the market for now.
September 27, 2022.
Luxury Homes:
Redfin reports the number of luxury home sales dropped 28.1%, year to year. Reasons cited include recession fears and rising interest rates.
General Market:
Year over year price report shows increase.
Redfin: Median sales price +7.7%. Number of homes sold -23.3%. New Listings -16.7%.
Month over month price report shows decrease.
Federal Reserve Bank: Median Sales price fell from a peak of $413,800 in June to $389,500 in August.
July 20, 2022.
Crosswinds:
The WSJ reports that the median existing home price hit a record in June, rising to $416,000 - while sales declined for the fifth straight month on higher interest rates.
Prices continue to climb and homes continue to sell quickly. Home inventory increased but remains low, with only a three month supply.
At the same time, 15% of home-purchase agreements that were pending in June fell through, the highest level since April 2020.
The NAR reports that 1-in-7 homes in June had a price reduction, up from 1-in-13 one year ago, but still below the 1-in-5 that was typical in 2019.
June 20, 2022.
Freddie Mac reports mortgage rates at their highest level since 2008. The Mortgage Bankers association reports that mortgage applications dropped to their lowest rate in 22 years.
Fannie Mae has revised downward their forecast for total home sales in 2022 to 5.96 million units, a 13.5 percent decline from 2021 and steeper than the previous forecast of an 11.1 percent decline.
However, with a tight supply and high demand, Zillow researchers released a revised forecast, predicting that U.S. home prices would rise 14.9% between March 2022 and March 2023.
May 27, 2022.
Rates are still low but climbing, and are expected to reach 6% this summer. Even so, historically, these are excellent rates.
Review the chart and compare today's rates with past rates. The early 1980's were especially difficult. With such high rates, most of the few sales that were made required a high amount of cash, loan assumption or owner financing. Truly difficult times.
Today home prices are higher, due to demand and historically low interest rates.
Rising rates will very likely impact prices and sellers will need to anticipate this.
For example, today it costs the buyer $200.00 more per month for each $100,000.00 borrowed than it did last October.
Rising rates will likely continue to exert downward pressure on home prices.